Net migration halves as fewer people come to UK for work and study

The difference between the number of people moving to the UK and leaving the country is estimated to have halved, in the biggest fall in net migration since the pandemic.

The figure stood at an estimated 431,000 in the year ending December 2024, down 49.9% from 860,000 a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said.

This is the biggest calendar-year drop since the early stages of the pandemic when net migration fell from 184,000 in the year ending December 2019 to 93,000 in the year ending December 2020.

The latest decrease is the largest numerical drop on record and the ONS said the decline has been driven by falling numbers of people coming to work and study in the UK.

Long-term immigration fell below one million for the first time in around three years.

That was estimated to be 948,000 in the year ending December 2024, down by almost a third from 1,326,000 in the previous 12 months and below a million for the first time since the 12 months to March 2022.

Emigration rose by around 11% to an estimated 517,000 for the year to December, up from 466,000 in the previous year.

People leaving the UK has returned to a similar level to the year ending June 2017.

The new estimates follow the introduction in early 2024 by the previous Conservative government of restrictions on people eligible to travel to the UK on work or study visas.

Former home secretary James Cleverly said while Labour “will try to claim credit”, the changes are a result of policies enacted while he was in government.

He posted on X, formerly Twitter: “This drop is because of the visa rule changes that I put in place. Labour will try to claim credit for these figures but they criticised me at the time, and have failed to fully implement the changes.”

Labour Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the fall in net migration is “welcome after the figures quadrupled to nearly a million in the last parliament”.

She added: “Our Immigration White Paper sets out radical reforms to further reduce net migration.”

Director of population statistics at the ONS Mary Gregory said: “Our provisional estimates show net migration has almost halved compared with the previous year, driven by falling numbers of people coming to work and study, particularly student dependants. This follows policy changes brought in restricting visa applications.

“There has also been an increase in emigration over the 12 months to December 2024, especially people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased.”

The biggest drop in terms of numbers was seen in non-EU nationals coming to the UK for work – this fell by 108,000 which was a 49% fall in the year ending December 2024.

People coming for study purposes declined by 17% in the same period.

But there were larger falls in dependants coming to the UK, with study dependants down by 86% (105,000 people) and work dependants dropping by 35% (81,000 people).

Last year, emigration levels were similar for non-EU nationals – who accounted for 43% or 222,000 of those leaving the UK – and EU nationals, who made up 42% or 218,000 of people moving from the country.

Some 77,000 British nationals emigrated, making up the other 15%.

Ms Gregory said: “There has also been an increase in emigration over the 12 months to December 2024, particularly people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased.”

The latest figures come less than a fortnight after Sir Keir Starmer said high net migration had caused “incalculable” damage to British society, as he set out a series of measures aimed at reducing further the number of people moving long term to the UK.

The Prime Minister, who said the country risks becoming an “island of strangers” without better integration, said he wanted net migration to have fallen “significantly” by the next general election – but refused to set a target number.

Sir Keir’s plan includes reforming work and study visas and requiring a higher level of English across all immigration routes, and is expected to reduce the number of people coming to the UK by up to 100,000 per year.

Sir Keir’s reference to strangers faced criticism – including from Labour backbenchers – as it was said by some to have echoes of Enoch Powell’s infamous “rivers of blood” speech.

But Ms Cooper defended the Prime Minister, insisting the tone of his plan was “completely different” from the 1968 anti-immigration speech.

The Prime Minister’s spokesman later confirmed Sir Keir stood by the words he used and rejected “absolutely” the Powell comparisons.

For many years, the level of immigration – people coming to the UK – has been higher than the level of emigration – people leaving – meaning more people are coming to settle in the UK than are leaving to settle in another country.

The Government’s promise to “take back control of our borders” comes as Labour battles a surge in support for Reform UK, which won a by-election and council seats across England earlier this month, with policies including a “freeze” on immigration.

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said the “record-breaking decline” in net migration was possible “primarily because numbers had previously been so high”.

Its director, Dr Madeleine Sumption, said the economic impact of the fall “is actually likely to be relatively small” because “the groups that have driven the decline, such as study and work dependants, are neither the highest skilled, highest-paid migrants who make substantial contributions to tax revenues, nor the most disadvantaged groups that require substantial support”.

Her colleague Dr Ben Brindle, a researcher at the organisation, said net migration is likely to fall further still as the Conservative government’s restrictions “are not yet fully visible in the data” and Labour’s recent policy proposals “should reduce migration further”.

But he added: “These declines will not necessarily take us to particularly low levels, by historical standards.”

The National Centre for Universities and Business (NCUB) warned that the “sharp decline in international student enrolment is not only a threat to the sector’s financial sustainability, but it also poses a direct risk to the UK’s broader economic prospects”.

Downing Street indicated on Thursday that it was not worried a fall in net migration would lead to a potential workforce shortage.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: “We are, for the first time, setting out a strategy to properly bring together a domestic skills strategy together with an immigration strategy.

“So we will be reducing our reliance on overseas labour by training up our domestic workforce and ensuring, as the public rightly expects, that our border system is secure.”

Published: 22/05/2025 by Radio NewsHub