Autumn more likely to be wetter than average bringing increased risk of floods

Autumn is more likely to be wetter than average, bringing an increased risk of flooding, the Met Office said, as El Nino is already at near-record levels.

The chances of a warm and wet meteorological autumn for the UK are around one-and-a-half to two times higher than would normally be expected, and there is an increased likelihood of windy conditions later in the season, the Met Office said.

It comes as supercharged El Nino conditions in the Pacific, which affect weather across the world, will put the UK at greater risk of a wet stormy autumn overall, forecasters say.

Forecasts have indicated that one of the strongest El Nino events on record would develop, and the current El Nino is already at near-record levels, the Met Office added.

El Nino occurs when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific become warmer than average and can affect weather patterns in Europe.

Historically, El Nino events have tended to be associated with warmer, wetter and stormier conditions across the UK and northern Europe during late autumn and early winter which is broadly consistent with the latest seasonal outlook, the Met Office said.

But, El Nino is one of several climate drivers that can influence the UK’s weather and so does not determine exactly what conditions the UK is likely to experience, the forecaster said.

The forecaster added that an increased likelihood of wetter and windier than normal conditions does come with an increased risk of impacts such as flooding.

Met Office Chief Meteorologist, Ian Lisk, said: “The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Nino events.

“However, El Nino is only one of several factors affecting the UK’s weather and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will experience. While this event may become one of the strongest El Nino events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.

“We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves.”

It comes as officials said almost three quarters of England remain in drought despite recent rain, as the country continues to battle its third drought in five years.

While rain has turned the grass green again, and it would be “understandable” to think the drought was over, the Environment Agency said there was still a very long way to go, with concerns over a number of reservoirs at very low levels.

Published: 11/09/2026 by Radio NewsHub